When noise makes clear decisions impossible
As an organization, you made it through the COVID pandemic, and now people are talking about the “age of polycrisis.” Some may dismiss this as an exaggeration, others say, “oh, that's just Horx, the Oracle of Frankfurt.” But the queasy feeling remains.
Reality mirrors the uncertainty: the budget dispute drags on through the summer lull, inflation is still not under control, and the war in Ukraine keeps simmering. Consumption is slowing, and many are asking themselves:
- Are we in an economic dip or a prolonged crisis?
- Is this just the beginning?
- Should we wait it out, divest, or perhaps do nothing at all?
- Should we communicate more?
- Spend more time on process optimization or innovation?
Strategy consultancies around the world talk about the VUCA world – a world that is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous – and insist that organizations must be robust and resilient. But what does it really mean to be “VUCA ready”? Is it just another buzzword for profiting from fear in falling markets?
The buyer's market is turning into a seller's market. Company leaders are expected to navigate us safely through uncertain waters, even in times of crisis. But they, too, often feel overwhelmed.
- Maybe it's time to quickly bring in some consultants?
- Isn't it reassuring to know that the polycrisis and the VUCA world are seen as external factors?
- Does that mean I, as management, am not to blame? Or am I?
- Now what? Should we use our scarce resources to draw attention to ourselves with advertising? But does that make sense if nobody is buying anything anyway?
- Would it be wise to consult a few futurists?
- Or do we wait for the insolvency administrator to shrink the company back to health?
In times of crisis, measures are often driven by fear
Everyone is aware of the need to act, but the suitability of the measures is questioned less often. As a result, more steps tend to be taken than are actually necessary, because times of crisis can be used for unpopular adjustments.
For listed companies, the quarterly figures have to add up, whatever the cost. Drastic measures quickly come to mind: lay off 10% of the workforce? Why not? The other 90% feel safe. As CEO, you score points by taking action. But it's hard to carry this burden alone. And something essential gets lost along the way: shared awareness.
Acting merely to be seen as acting must not be the premise.
There's a system behind it. We don't wish crisis experiences on ourselves, and we often hide them from our children, too. How often did I hear my mother say, “Everything's fine!” or “We'll sort it out!”
As management, too, you can slip into hope mode in times of polycrisis. But the notion that everything will return to normal often takes longer to come true.
A passive or reactive attitude toward the future is out of place here
Ideally, companies have employees who take ownership. Especially in times of crisis, they should live this ownership, acknowledge uncertainties, and address them actively.
Noise can leave us feeling disoriented. We don't know whether to move or stand still. “Should I Stay or Should I Go?” – we need to get to the bottom of this question. We need to examine what disruptions do and how we can better address the fears behind them.
The polycrisis paints dystopian images of the future. If we better understand the cause-and-effect relationships, it becomes clearer how we need to change as an organization:
- What measures should we take?
- At what points in time or data points should we revisit these topics?
Noise keeps us from having an impact
Since having an impact – and feeling that impact – is one of people's greatest motivations, it's clear what disruptions should never cause: a disruption! To deal with disruptions consciously, we recommend collecting them systematically, engaging with them in a suitable setting, naming the dangers and risks, and outlining their possible effects.
Many disruptions lead to similar outcomes. When business success suffers and market signals point to crisis, an organization will have to adapt. The only way out of this dilemma is to consciously build resilience, take precautions, and recognize which opportunities an organization misses when it switches into crisis mode prematurely, thereby shutting down its own potential and robbing itself of its own future prospects.
We stand for switching gears carefully. Let’s clear the noise and strengthen the signal!
