{"id":97820,"date":"2026-09-15T13:56:06","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T11:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/?p=97820"},"modified":"2026-09-26T23:22:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T21:22:13","slug":"versorgung-2050-wer-gestaltet-was-heute-noch-zukunft-ist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/health-care-2050-who-shapes-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Health care 2050: Who shapes what is still the future today?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"97820\" class=\"elementor elementor-97820\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-48a9fd0d e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"48a9fd0d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f4c4590 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f4c4590\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">A position paper by Schaltzeit for the 25th German Congress for Health Services Research (DKVF), September 23\u201325, 2026, University Hospital Cologne<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-28410c17 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"28410c17\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhen health services research celebrates its 25th anniversary in Cologne, looking back seems natural \u2013 and that is exactly why it pays to look the other way: which of the things that must be taken for granted in 2050 will be decided in the next five years?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-502b478 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"502b478\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>We are futurists, not forecasters. No one can predict health care in 2050, and anyone who tries is selling orientation they don\u2019t have. What is possible: thinking through futures in the plural, disclosing assumptions, making room for action visible \u2013 and deriving decisions for today from all of this. The congress motto \u201cPeople. Relationships. Organizations.\u201d goes right to our core: the future of health care is not a question of technology but of collaboration. Or, as we put it more briefly at Schaltzeit: the future is a team sport.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-13a7f66 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"13a7f66\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-754f9b71 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"754f9b71\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_1-1024x1024.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-97827\" alt=\"This image was generated entirely with AI.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_1-1024x1024.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_1-300x300.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_1-150x150.jpeg 150w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_1-768x768.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_1-12x12.jpeg 12w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_1.jpeg 1254w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-szki=\"generated\" title=\"\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-37ff72d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"37ff72d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>The human being as a machine in need of a future update?<\/strong> The illustration draws on the image of the human being in Dr. Fritz Kahn\u2019s \u201cDer Mensch als Industriepalast\u201d (Man as Industrial Palace, 1926), in which the human body appears as a factory. Anyone who understands the human being as a technical system will logically look for technical solutions to illness, old age and even death when thinking about the future of health. Longevity, the quantified self and smart personalized medicine continue this perspective. But there are also images of the human being that understand health as a complex interplay of physical, psychological and social factors \u2013 shaped by emotions and experiences, worldviews and relationships, social norms, interests and power relations that cannot be fully objectified and quantified. These fundamental questions are also relevant to futures studies: <strong>Our image of the human being shapes which futures of health care we consider conceivable, desirable or shapeable in the first place.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b5d0e9d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b5d0e9d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Five questions we are bringing along<\/h3><p>The view toward 2050 becomes concrete as soon as you translate it into questions. We are taking five of them to Cologne:<\/p><ul><li>Under what conditions do we actually optimize health care \u2013 and not just the metric we use to measure it?<\/li><li>Why is the optimum currently unaffordable? And who decides what we pay for instead?<\/li><li>How can I become proactive myself \u2013 as a patient, as a family member, as a professional?<\/li><li>How can community make aging and illness easier, beyond benefit catalogs?<\/li><li>Will health care in 2050 be managed regionally or planned centrally \u2013 and how much specialization can local accessibility withstand?<\/li><\/ul><h3>Our position: four theses<\/h3><p><strong>The future is not fate but a decision.<\/strong> Treating 2050 as a forecast means delegating responsibility to trends. We work with several futures in parallel \u2013 the probable, the desirable and the uncomfortable \u2013 and derive from them what needs to be done today.<\/p><p><strong>Futures literacy is infrastructure.<\/strong> A health system that only writes scenarios in times of crisis is too late. Foresight belongs in the day-to-day business of hospitals, health insurers and municipalities \u2013 as naturally as controlling.<\/p><p><strong>Participation is not an optional extra but a method.<\/strong> Those who will receive care in 2050 must help write the images of the future \u2013 patients, caregivers, family members. Participatory formats don\u2019t just deliver acceptance; they deliver assumptions that are simply missing from the expert discourse.<\/p><p><strong>Technology is a means, not an end.<\/strong> Not everything has to be automated, not everything needs an algorithm. The exciting question is not what technology will be able to do in 2050, but what human care and attention we consciously want to afford.<\/p><p>We deliberately hold back on health policy instruments \u2013 whether regional budgets, a primary care physician system or citizens\u2019 insurance, that is a matter of democratic deliberation, not a question for futures studies. Our position concerns the process: anyone deciding about 2050 should first be able to say how they will recognize success and whom they asked.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c547e60 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c547e60\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ad8f645 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"ad8f645\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0504bc5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"0504bc5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"738\" height=\"1020\" src=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_2-1.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-97862\" alt=\"This image was generated entirely with AI.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_2-1.jpeg 738w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_2-1-217x300.jpeg 217w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_2-1-9x12.jpeg 9w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 738px) 100vw, 738px\" data-szki=\"generated\" title=\"\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-88ddff4 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"88ddff4\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f575856 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"f575856\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"739\" height=\"1020\" src=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_2-2.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-97861\" alt=\"This image was generated entirely with AI.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_2-2.jpeg 739w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_2-2-217x300.jpeg 217w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_2-2-9x12.jpeg 9w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 739px) 100vw, 739px\" data-szki=\"generated\" title=\"\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3f964a7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3f964a7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Two visions of the future, one health system: the yacht with a robo-butler and the capsized ship. Both images reveal more about our current assumptions than about 2050.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-281b3a8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"281b3a8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Demographics: health care becomes a team effort<\/h3>\n<p>The order of magnitude is well known: according to the long-term care projection by the Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office), the number of people in need of long-term care will rise by around 36 percent to about 6.8 million by 2055 due to aging alone \u2013 and with rising care rates, by 2.6 million more than today. In 2050, a smaller number of professionals will therefore be caring for significantly more people with chronic and multiple illnesses. The consequence is not a tightening of the efficiency screw but a new division of labor: expanded nursing roles, community health nursing, delegated and substituted services, regional care teams. The open research question is not whether this works, but under what organizational conditions it increases both quality and job satisfaction at the same time.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Our expectation:<\/strong> The bottleneck in 2050 is not just the number of hands, but the willingness to redistribute responsibility among professions.<\/p>\n<p>Added to this is a factor often missing from demographic debates: climate. Heat waves hit precisely those groups that will be larger in number in 2050 \u2013 very old, multimorbid people in need of care. Heat protection plans, coolable nursing homes, early warning systems and heat-adapted medication regimens are therefore not environmental issues but health care planning. The open question is whether, by 2050, adaptation will be organized as a routine task of hospitals, care facilities and municipalities \u2013 or continue to be treated as a summer exception.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2f74ed8 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"2f74ed8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cb0ad6b elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"cb0ad6b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_3-1024x768.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-97868\" alt=\"This image was generated entirely with AI.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_3-1024x768.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_3-300x225.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_3-768x576.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_3-16x12.jpeg 16w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_3.jpeg 1448w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-szki=\"generated\" title=\"\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-40b22e5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"40b22e5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCologne 2076: the cathedral as a field hospital, volunteering instead of private clinics. The 12-euro admission fee already exists today \u2013 so the co-payment has been learned before the health care moves in. What if community carries health care because the system no longer can?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4e71583 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4e71583\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Digitalization and AI: from documentation to decision<\/h3><p>By 2050, electronic patient records, data spaces and AI assistance will shift the boundary between routine and judgment. What is interesting is less the quality of the models than how they are embedded: who bears responsibility for an algorithmically supported decision, how does the conversation between practitioners and patients change, and what standards of evidence do learning systems need when they continue to evolve after approval?<\/p><p>The narratives about this are far apart: while longevity circles proclaim \u201cThe End of Death\u201d for 2046, others worry about two-tier medicine in which longer life can be bought and care and attention become scarce. Between these two narratives lie decisions that are being prepared today: xenotransplantation and lab-grown organs not only push medical boundaries, they also raise the question of who gets access, who is a donor and which extension of life we want to finance collectively. We take both images seriously, but consider neither a forecast \u2013 they are scenarios that can be calculated against each other. Anyone who treats them merely as a worldview is wasting precisely the preparation time we still have.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3308677 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"3308677\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8dc9aaa elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"8dc9aaa\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_4-1024x683.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-97867\" alt=\"This image was generated entirely with AI.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_4-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_4-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_4-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_4-18x12.jpeg 18w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_4.jpeg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-szki=\"generated\" title=\"\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9ead0a3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9ead0a3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCologne 2054: \u201cPick a face or a body\u201d \u2013 when life extension becomes a consumer good. An exaggeration, not a forecast.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f8fd844 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f8fd844\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Participation: patients as co-producers<\/h3>\n<p>By 2050, participation will no longer be asked for at the end of the value chain; it will determine where it begins. PROMs and PREMs move from studies into management, and co-design becomes standard practice in developing health care services. This requires methods from health services research that make experiential knowledge robust without smoothing it over.<\/p>\n<p><strong>This is where we take a clear position:<\/strong> An image of the future that no patients helped write is not an image of the future but a planning assumption.<\/p>\n\n<h3>Structures and financing: incentives for collaboration<\/h3>\n<p>Germany spends a lot: 538.2 billion euros in 2024, 6,444 euros per capita, 12.4 percent of gross domestic product \u2013 in 1994, it was 175.3 billion euros and 9.5 percent. 48.2 percent went to outpatient facilities, 36.7 percent to inpatient and day-patient facilities, and social long-term care insurance recorded the strongest growth at 11.3 percent. Sector boundaries and fee-for-service remuneration are the most effective brakes on integrated care.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fb3e713 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fb3e713\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1a07d1e elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"1a07d1e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_5-1024x576.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-97866\" alt=\"This image was generated entirely with AI.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_5-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_5-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_5-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_5-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_5-18x10.jpeg 18w, https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/260918_Versorgung_5.jpeg 1672w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-szki=\"generated\" title=\"\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b8e8c8a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b8e8c8a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNexus Healthcare Centre 2066: Basic, Premium or Extra Care \u2013 paid for with shares of your pension. What kind of health care do we afford, and who decides?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-525cb55 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"525cb55\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>A wide range of instruments is currently under discussion \u2013 primary care systems, integrated emergency centers, further shifts to outpatient care, delegation and substitution of medical tasks, regional budgets, outcome-based remuneration and even citizens\u2019 insurance. Which combination will work remains open; what interests us is less the political decision than the question of how its success would be recognized in 2050. Whether quality in 2050 will be decided primarily at the regional level \u2013 in care networks with shared responsibility for populations, budgets and outcomes \u2013 or in more centrally planned, specialized structures is one of the open questions.<\/p><p>This is also where the answer to the question of affordability lies: <strong>The optimum is too expensive today not because good care is expensive, but because our system also pays for duplicate examinations, revolving-door effects and friction at sector boundaries.<\/strong> The research task is demanding: the impact of such systems cannot be demonstrated through randomized designs alone.<\/p><h3>Our invitation: keep thinking with us<\/h3><p>We were already there in Hamburg in 2025 with the Advanced Foresight Group \u2013 you can read about it in the recap <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/advanced-foresight.com\/wohin-steuert-die-versorgung-die-advanced-foresight-group-auf-dem-dkvf-2025-in-hamburg\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cWhere Is Health Care Heading? Advanced Foresight at DKVF 2025\u201d<\/a><\/strong>. Schaltzeit will once again be at DKVF this year, actively running a workshop \u2013 using LEGO\u00ae Serious Play. Built models make assumptions visible that remain unspoken in discussion papers: who is at the center? What gets delegated, what remains human? Where does progress tip over into inequality?<\/p><p>Our Futures Oracle is also on board \u2013 not an answer machine, but a deliberately playful entry point into scenario thinking. In addition, we invite you to leave your utopian and dystopian thoughts on health care in 2050 at our booth. We will collect the contributions over the three days of the congress, condense them into an image of the future and share the results back with the community.<\/p><p><strong>Contradict us.<\/strong> We are not coming to Cologne with a finished image of the future, but with theses we\u2019d like to see challenged \u2013 viable ideas don\u2019t emerge at the lectern, but in the conversations in between. We have described where our drive for this comes from in the post <em>The courage to shape the future<\/em> on our blog.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9060bf3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9060bf3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Further reading:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/glossary-health-care-2050\/\">Glossary: Terms that resonate in 2050<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/advanced-foresight.com\/wohin-steuert-die-versorgung-die-advanced-foresight-group-auf-dem-dkvf-2025-in-hamburg\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Where Is Health Care Heading? Advanced Foresight at DKVF 2025<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/change-healthcare-by-design-not-by-disaster\/\">Change healthcare by design, not by disaster<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/the-courage-to-shape-the-future\/\">The courage to shape the future <\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dnvf.de\/veranstaltungen\/dkvf\/dkvf-2026.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">25th German Congress for Health Services Research<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fb10660 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fb10660\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em><strong>Figures:<\/strong> Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office), health expenditure 2024 (press release of April 7, 2026) and long-term care projection 2023. <\/em><em ><strong>Images:<\/strong> AI-generated visions of the future (Schaltzeit) \u2013 food for thought, not predictions.<\/em>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When health services research celebrates its 25th anniversary in Cologne, looking back seems natural \u2013 and that is exactly why it pays to look the other way: which of the things that must be taken for granted in 2050 will be decided in the next five years?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":97898,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[307],"class_list":["post-97820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gesellschaft"],"acf":[],"authors":[{"term_id":307,"user_id":17,"is_guest":0,"slug":"andrewinzersz","display_name":"Andr\u00e9 Winzer","avatar_url":"http:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cropped-Andre-w_1920px-96x96.jpg","author_category":"","first_name":"Andr\u00e9","user_url":"","job_title":"","description":"The formal head of the company, but generally happier to dive headfirst into new challenges. His switch is set to \u201cmain\u201d, his range of action preferably to \u201csimultaneous\u201d. He passionately analyzes &amp; interprets business models. His workshops and talks revolve around the theme of \u201cPreparing for Tomorrow\u201d. He likes to show that business models can easily be transferred to other industries."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97820"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97820\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98846,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97820\/revisions\/98846"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97898"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97820"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=97820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}