{"id":97498,"date":"2026-07-16T16:05:33","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T14:05:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/?p=97498"},"modified":"2026-07-24T18:23:27","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T16:23:27","slug":"change-healthcare-by-design-not-by-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/change-healthcare-by-design-not-by-disaster\/","title":{"rendered":"Change Healthcare by Design, not by Disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhat does good health care look like in 2050? How futures studies can contribute to health services research within the DNVF. There is no shortage of evidence documenting dysfunctions in today's health care system and criticism of its structural framework. But do we have equally concrete ideas about how health care could work better in the future?\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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This is precisely the question Schaltzeit explored with the Board of Directors of the Ger-man Network Health Service Research (DNVF). Using AI, we synthesised future scenarios from national and international literature and refined them through dialogue sessions with members of the Board. Over two workshop days, we then developed them further using a Dialogue Walk, backcasting and LEGO\u00ae SERIOUS PLAY\u00ae - guided by two key questions: Through which structural mechanisms might health care in Germany change - by deliberate design, under pressure, from the bottom up, or not at all? And who holds the power to shape that change?<\/p>

Why futures studies matters for health services research<\/h3>

Despite what the name may suggest, futures studies does not research the future itself. It addresses questions of the present: the assumptions we generate today about what might lie ahead. The aim is not prediction, but to systematically open up the space of possibilities and generate knowledge that helps orient decisions in the present. For health services research, this matters for three reasons:<\/p>

Critique alone changes nothing. Knowing what does not work does not tell us where we should be heading. The DNVF can therefore play an important role not only in identifying dysfunctions, but also in developing well-founded proposals for what good health care could look like in the future.<\/p>

Images of the future are not facts - but neither are they arbitrary. Visions of good health care are constructs of the present, shaped by the perspectives of those who create them. This inevitably makes the question of what constitutes \"good\" health care normative and political as well: What is good? What is fair? What constitutes a good life? For a scientific professional association that places evidence at its core, that is precisely the challenge: to distinguish rigorously between where evidence can guide us and where values and ne-gotiation come into play. Both have a legitimate place in shaping the future. They should not be conflated. In other words: less gut feeling, more data.<\/p>

Images of a preferred future need a reality check. Desirable visions of the future can quickly become wishful thinking if they ignore the structural conditions that shape whether change happens in Germany \u2013 or fails to happen. Change as a deliberately designed, technocratically managed process. Change as a response to pressure, producing winners and those left behind. Change that simply never arrives. And change that grows from the bottom up and gains legitimacy through participation. What actually makes the system change? Who has the power to shape it? Who loses out, who protects their influence, and what perverse incentives can arise from well-intentioned approaches? This is where it pays to bring in perspectives beyond one's own field \u2013\u00a0from patients, hospitals, policymakers and health insurers, as well as from economics, political science and law.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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DNVF Congress<\/strong><\/p>

In September, the debate about what constitutes good health care in the future will continue at the DNVF Congress<\/a> where it will be explored in greater depth and enriched by the network's diverse disciplinary perspectives.<\/p>

We are curious to see where the discussion leads. Thank you to the DNVF Board of Directors for two open, challenging and productive days together, during which we explored a range of possible futures.<\/p>

If people cannot imagine a different future, they have little reason to work towards change. That is precisely why, at Schaltzeit, we make futures tangible and experiential.<\/p>

\ud83d\udc49 More about our Futures Experience formats<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhat is futures studies?<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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Zukunft ist ungewiss \u2013 deshalb sind Zukunftsforschung und ihre Anwendung in Form von strategischer Vorausschau bzw Foresight so relevant. Die Zukunftsforschung untersucht systematisch m\u00f6gliche, wahrscheinliche und w\u00fcnschbare Zuk\u00fcnfte. Sie nutzt wissenschaftliche Methoden, um Orientierung zu geben und Entscheidungen in der Gegenwart zu erm\u00f6glichen. Schaltzeit<\/a> bietet daf\u00fcr verschiedene Ans\u00e4tze und Methoden passend zu den jeweiligen Zukunftsfragen, die untersucht werden sollen.\u00a0<\/p><\/span>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

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Versorgungsforschung untersucht die Gesundheitsversorgung unter realen Bedingungen: Sie fragt, wie Organisation, Steuerung und Finanzierung der Versorgung den Zugang, die Qualit\u00e4t und Sicherheit, die Kosten sowie letztlich die Gesundheit und das Wohlbefinden der Bev\u00f6lkerung beeinflussen. Das Deutsche Netzwerk Versorgungsforschung (DNVF<\/a>) ist dabei ein interdisziplin\u00e4res Netzwerk, das Wissenschaft, Versorgungspraxis und Gesundheitspolitik zusammenbringt, um die Versorgungsforschung weiterzuentwickeln und die Gesundheitsversorgung zu verbessern.<\/p><\/span>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWas ist LEGO\u00ae SERIOUS PLAY\u00ae ?<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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LEGO\u00ae Serious Play\u00ae (LSP) ist eine moderierte Methode, bei der Teilnehmende mit LEGO-Steinen Gedanken, Erfahrungen, Probleme oder Zukunftsvorstellungen als dreidimensionale Modelle bauen und anschlie\u00dfend anhand dieser Modelle erz\u00e4hlen und diskutieren. Die Grundidee ist das sogenannte \u201eDenken mit den H\u00e4nden\u201c: Statt eine Frage nur abstrakt zu diskutieren, bauen die Teilnehmenden zun\u00e4chst ihre eigene Antwort. Dadurch werden auch implizite Vorstellungen, Annahmen und Perspektiven sichtbar, die in einer klassischen Gespr\u00e4chsrunde oft unausgesprochen bleiben. LEGO\u00ae Serious Play\u00ae passt gut zur Zukunftsforschung, weil die Methode abstrakte Zukunftsvorstellungen spielerisch und intuitiv greifbar macht. Durch das \u201eDenken mit den H\u00e4nden\u201c entstehen konkrete Bilder m\u00f6glicher Zuk\u00fcnfte, die anschlie\u00dfend erz\u00e4hlt, geteilt und gemeinsam reflektiert werden k\u00f6nnen. Der spielerische Zugang schafft einen gesch\u00fctzten Raum ohne vorab richtige Antworten und hilft dabei, gewohnte Denk- und Argumentationsmuster zu verlassen. So lassen sich auch unsichere, schwer greifbare und dennoch gestaltbare Zuk\u00fcnfte explorieren.<\/p><\/span>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWas ist ein Dialogwalk?<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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Ein Dialog Walk (auch Dialogspaziergang oder Walk & Talk genannt) ist ein Format, bei dem zwei oder mehr Personen w\u00e4hrend eines Spaziergangs im Freien ein tiefgehendes Gespr\u00e4ch \u00fcber ein bestimmtes Thema f\u00fchren. Dazu k\u00f6nnen spezifische zu bearbeitende Fragen mitgegeben werden. Das Format verbindet k\u00f6rperliche Bewegung an der frischen Luft mit achtsamem Zuh\u00f6ren und einem offenen, echten Austausch. Mit dem Format sollen das Denken und Reflektieren gef\u00f6rdert und Ablenkung reduziert werden \u2013 ablenkende Dinge wie Laptops, Notizen oder Bildschirme bleiben zur\u00fcck.\u00a0<\/p><\/span>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWas ist Backcasting?<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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Beim Backcasting wird nicht von der Gegenwart aus exploriert, in welche Richtungen sich die Zukunft entwickeln k\u00f6nnte. Stattdessen wird von einem definierten Zukunftsbild aus r\u00fcckw\u00e4rts gedacht: Welche Schritte, Ver\u00e4nderungen und Voraussetzungen w\u00e4ren notwendig, um von der Gegenwart dorthin zu gelangen? Die Methode dient dazu, m\u00f6gliche Transformationspfade zu identifizieren und konkrete Schritte abzuleiten, mit denen Ver\u00e4nderung in Richtung des angestrebten Zukunftsbildes gestaltet werden kann.<\/p><\/span>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wie sieht eine gute Grundversorgung 2050 aus? Was Zukunftsforschung zur Versorgungsforschung des DNVF beitragen kann.
\nEvidenzen zu Dysfunktionalit\u00e4ten und Kritik an der heutigen Versorgung und ihren strukturellen Rahmenbedingungen im deutschen Gesundheitssystem gibt es viele. Aber gibt es auch konkrete Vorstellungen, wie die Versorgung in Zukunft besser laufen k\u00f6nnte?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":97595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[481,544,526,476,521,547,549,536,527,551,539,550,484,519,264,520,295,546,341,495,516,522,533,543,318,280,469,532,542,529,272,274,528,508,548,535,523,534,538,537,265,518,267,290,530,315,480,531,517,545,525,540,402,524,279,448,515,541],"ppma_author":[310,307],"class_list":["post-97498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-workshop","tag-andre-winzer","tag-arztpraxis","tag-backcasting","tag-blinde-flecken","tag-care","tag-daseinsvorsorge","tag-daten","tag-design","tag-dialogwalk","tag-disaster","tag-dnvf","tag-elektronische-patientenakte","tag-entscheidungsarchitektur","tag-evidenz","tag-foresight","tag-forschung","tag-futures-literacy","tag-gemeinwohl","tag-gesellschaft","tag-gesundheit","tag-gesundheitssystem","tag-healthcare","tag-hitze","tag-kassensitze","tag-ki","tag-ki-ethik","tag-ki-gestuetzte-foresight","tag-klima","tag-krankenhaeuser","tag-kreativitaet","tag-kuenstliche-intelligenz","tag-large-language-models","tag-lego-serious-play","tag-magdalena-soetebeer","tag-patienten","tag-praevention","tag-reform","tag-resilienz","tag-roadmap","tag-rollenverstaendnis","tag-schaltzeit","tag-smart-health","tag-strategie","tag-strategische-vorausschau","tag-strukturen","tag-szenarien","tag-szenarien-seminar","tag-ungleichheit","tag-versicherungen","tag-versorgung","tag-vision","tag-vorstand","tag-workshop","tag-zukunftsbild","tag-zukunftsforschung","tag-zukunftsgestaltung","tag-zukunftskompetenz-health","tag-zukunftsmodell"],"acf":[],"authors":[{"term_id":310,"user_id":20,"is_guest":0,"slug":"magdalenasoetebeersz","display_name":"Magdalena Soetebeer","avatar_url":"http:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/maggy.introduction.photo-Kopie-96x96.jpg","author_category":"","first_name":"Magdalena","user_url":"","job_title":"","description":"Magdalena ist gelernte Kommunikationsdesignerin und bei Schaltzeit im Bereich Kommunikation und Futures Literacy t\u00e4tig. Ihre Erfahrungen in Gebieten der Zukunftsforschung, Design Thinking sowie Workshopkonzeption und -moderation l\u00e4sst sie verschiedenen Methoden einflie\u00dfen, um in partizipativen Prozessen bestm\u00f6gliche Grundlagen f\u00fcr Ideationsprozesse zu erarbeiten."},{"term_id":307,"user_id":17,"is_guest":0,"slug":"andrewinzersz","display_name":"Andr\u00e9 Winzer","avatar_url":"http:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cropped-Andre-w_1920px-96x96.jpg","author_category":"","first_name":"Andr\u00e9","user_url":"","job_title":"","description":"Formeller Kopf, aber im Allgemeinen lieber kopflos, st\u00fcrzt er sich in neue Herausforderungen. Der Schalter steht bei ihm auf Haupt, der Aktionsradius gern auf Simultan. Er analysiert & interpretiert leidenschaftlich Gesch\u00e4ftsmodelle. In Workshops als auch Vortr\u00e4gen geht es dabei rund um das Thema \u201ePreparing for Tomorrow\u201c. Dabei zeigt er gern, dass Gesch\u00e4ftsmodelle auch leicht auf andere Branchen \u00fcbertragbar sind."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97498"}],"version-history":[{"count":49,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97498\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":97642,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97498\/revisions\/97642"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97498"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=97498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}