{"id":97434,"date":"2026-07-16T16:33:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T14:33:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/?p=97434"},"modified":"2026-07-16T17:23:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T15:23:15","slug":"beides-wird-foresight-heissen-nur-eines-wird-es-sein","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/beides-wird-foresight-heissen-nur-eines-wird-es-sein\/","title":{"rendered":"Both will be called \u201cforesight.\u201d Only one of them will be."},"content":{"rendered":"
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What AI is doing to futures studies \u2014 and what we are doing with it<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe future is not a spectator sport. So we got in the game: in June, our CEO Andr\u00e9 Winzer was a guest at the scenario seminar of the Master\u2019s programme in Futures Studies at Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin, taking on a question that is very much on our minds at Schaltzeit right now: What is AI doing to futures studies? And, above all: what are we doing with it?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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No hype, no \u201cthis is how it will play out.\u201d Instead, an honest look at what remains invisible in AI-supported foresight.<\/p>

Three blind spots<\/h3>

Prompts are authorship.<\/strong> Whoever writes the prompt determines the outcome \u2014 but nobody sees the prompt. Manipulation is possible, and impossible to prove.<\/p>

AI mirrors our own echo chamber.<\/strong> Instead of bringing in unfamiliar perspectives, it hands us back our present \u201cin a new outfit.\u201d<\/p>

Flattery has become trivially cheap.<\/strong> Confirmation of your own worldview now costs exactly one prompt. AI slashes the cost of fa\u00e7ades \u2014 and in doing so makes genuine knowledge relatively more expensive.<\/p>

The diagnosis: the profession is splitting in two<\/h3>

On one side, cheap output production at scale \u2014 on the other, decision architecture that is more expensive and less comfortable, but verifiable. Both will be called \u201cforesight.\u201d Only one of them will be.<\/p>

Our answer: transparency is not a compliance exercise, it is our immunisation. We disclose the prompt, the data and the model version to our clients. Not publicly \u2014 but verifiably.<\/p>

Learning and experimenting: our path to AI-supported foresight<\/h3>

The use of AI in futures studies has been a topic of debate in the foresight community for quite some time. Sometimes with healthy scepticism, sometimes with a slightly condescending \u201cthat'll never work\u201d. For a long time, these assessments played out mostly on a theoretical level; only since ChatGPT arrived at the end of 2022 have more and more foresight practitioners been putting AI to the test in practice.<\/p>

At Schaltzeit, true to our motto of learning and experimenting, we had been itching to try out different applications hands-on long before 2022. Much has emerged since then, from playful futures-literacy applications to scalable foresight workflows: starting in 2020, we piloted a continuous AI-supported foresight approach for the German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) and put it on a permanent footing, with many further projects following, from foresight to innovation management. In 2024, our colleague Lucas Buchauer researched the use of large language models in horizon-scanning processes for his Master\u2019s thesis at Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin. And from applied research to panel discussions to seminars with students, we are always happy to debate the possibilities and limits of AI in foresight \u2013 most recently at the workshop \u201cAI in Strategic Foresight\u201d hosted by the Bundeswehr Planning Office.<\/p>

Read our report on the Advanced Foresight Group blog.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>

Future Alchemy: hands-on futures literacy<\/h3>

Because futures literacy is best experienced first-hand, the seminar offered a chance to try out Future Alchemy: a futures-literacy game built as a web app, which Lucas created through vibe coding \u2013 that is, developed in dialogue with the AI rather than programmed line by line. Recombining ingredients of the future, discovering what-if impulses and exploring them together.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tScreenshot from the Futures Alchemy application\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Whether it is mobility, education or a topic close to your heart: the users decide what to experiment with. The app provides methodical guidance through key factors, projections and scenarios, while the AI generates impulses for playing through possible futures.<\/p>

We develop. We test. We apply. And we pass it on.<\/p>

A wish to close with<\/h3>

To the next generation of futures researchers: do not be seduced by the vices of AI-supported futures studies \u2014 sloth (delegating your thinking to the AI), pride (the illusion of mastering the data), greed (no genuine participation) and self-deception (the illusion of certainty).<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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What are the vices of futures studies?<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Sloth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBecomes cognitive delegation to AI.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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PRIDE<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe illusion of being able to master the future with enough data.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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GREED<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe temptation to stop investing in genuine participation when an algorithm is faster.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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SELF-DECEPTION<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe core of the problem: the illusion of certainty.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFrom the lecture \u201cKI trifft Foresight: die Frage nach Qualit\u00e4t und Vertrauen\u201d by Andr\u00e9 Winzer (schaltzeit, June 2026)\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Our wish for you: do not answer questions about the future with technology alone, tapping nothing but our own echo chambers. Knowledge gained through your own deliberate engagement and your own work is all the more valuable. Do not settle for the shortcut, even when the AI tells you: \u201cI can do it in one click.\u201d Stay curious, stay uncomfortable, and make your work traceable and verifiable. Futures research and futures design lose out when knowledge serves only marketing.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The future is not a spectator sport. So we got in the game: in June, our CEO Andr\u00e9 Winzer was a guest at the scenario seminar of the Master\u2019s programme in Futures Studies at Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin, taking on a question that is very much on our minds at Schaltzeit right now: What is AI doing to futures studies? And, above all: what are we doing with it?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":97448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[481,476,484,264,479,478,295,368,318,280,469,272,274,483,482,475,470,474,472,477,265,290,315,480,471,473,374,279,448,326],"ppma_author":[307,311],"class_list":["post-97434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-foresight","tag-andre-winzer","tag-blinde-flecken","tag-entscheidungsarchitektur","tag-foresight","tag-fu-berlin","tag-future-alchemy","tag-futures-literacy","tag-horizon-scanning","tag-ki","tag-ki-ethik","tag-ki-gestuetzte-foresight","tag-kuenstliche-intelligenz","tag-large-language-models","tag-laster-der-zukunftsforschung","tag-lucas-buchauer","tag-nachvollziehbarkeit","tag-prompts","tag-pruefbarkeit","tag-qualitaet","tag-resonanzraum","tag-schaltzeit","tag-strategische-vorausschau","tag-szenarien","tag-szenarien-seminar","tag-transparenz","tag-vertrauen","tag-vibe-coding","tag-zukunftsforschung","tag-zukunftsgestaltung","tag-zukunftskompetenz"],"acf":[],"authors":[{"term_id":307,"user_id":17,"is_guest":0,"slug":"andrewinzersz","display_name":"Andr\u00e9 Winzer","avatar_url":"http:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cropped-Andre-w_1920px-96x96.jpg","author_category":"","first_name":"Andr\u00e9","user_url":"","job_title":"","description":"Formeller Kopf, aber im Allgemeinen lieber kopflos, st\u00fcrzt er sich in neue Herausforderungen. Der Schalter steht bei ihm auf Haupt, der Aktionsradius gern auf Simultan. Er analysiert & interpretiert leidenschaftlich Gesch\u00e4ftsmodelle. In Workshops als auch Vortr\u00e4gen geht es dabei rund um das Thema \u201ePreparing for Tomorrow\u201c. Dabei zeigt er gern, dass Gesch\u00e4ftsmodelle auch leicht auf andere Branchen \u00fcbertragbar sind."},{"term_id":311,"user_id":21,"is_guest":0,"slug":"lucasbuchaeuersz","display_name":"Lucas Buchauer","avatar_url":"http:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/lb_avatar-96x96.jpg","author_category":"","first_name":"Lucas","user_url":"","job_title":"","description":"Nach seinem Master in Zukunftsforschung an der FU ist Lucas im Bereich Foresight und Ideation bei Schaltzeit t\u00e4tig. Mit Leidenschaft entwickelt er KI-Anwendungen f\u00fcr Vorausschau und Ideengenerierung und bringt unsere internen Prozesse auf Trab. Seine Erfahrungen in der Zukunftsforschung sowie in der Entwicklung innovativer Methoden l\u00e4sst er in verschiedene Projekte einflie\u00dfen, um in partizipativen Prozessen die Zukunft aktiv zu gestalten. F\u00fcr ihn beginnt die Zukunft heute, und er zeigt gern, wie man sie mit innovativen Ideen vorantreiben kann."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97434"}],"version-history":[{"count":37,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97434\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":97476,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97434\/revisions\/97476"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97434"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schaltzeit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=97434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}